ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its predictions for the 2026 college football season, and the outlook for Big 12 rivals BYU and Utah is promising. Both teams are expected to be contenders for the conference championship, with BYU ranked No. 20 and Utah No. 31 nationally. This marks a significant improvement from last year, where BYU finished ranked No. 11 and Utah was a surprise top 15 team.
BYU's FPI score of 13.1 is impressive, with projected wins of 8.7 and a 93.1% chance of achieving six wins and bowl eligibility. The Cougars have a 16.5% chance of winning the Big 12, a 25.7% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 2.2% chance of reaching the national championship game. However, their odds of winning the national championship are just 0.7%.
The Cougars' strength of schedule is ninth in the Big 12, which is a notable improvement from last year when they were 74th. BYU's non-conference schedule includes a high-profile game against Notre Dame, ranked No. 3 in the FPI, on October 17. Their conference games will feature a showdown with Utah, ranked No. 31, on November 7.
Utah's FPI score of 8.5 is also strong, with projected wins of 7.7 and a 83.7% chance of achieving six wins. The Utes have a 5.9% chance of winning the Big 12, a 11.1% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 0.6% chance of reaching the national championship game. Their odds of winning the national championship are just 0.2%.
Utah's strength of schedule is 13th in the Big 12, which is favorable for a team returning several key players. The Utes' non-conference schedule includes a game against Arkansas from the SEC, ranked No. 47 in the FPI, on September 12. Their conference games will feature a match-up with BYU, ranked No. 20, on November 7.
The FPI predictions highlight the potential for both BYU and Utah to have successful seasons. While BYU has a slightly higher projected win total and odds of making the College Football Playoff, Utah's strength of schedule and non-conference schedule could provide challenges. The rivalry between these two teams will be a key factor in determining the Big 12 champion.
In my opinion, the FPI's predictions are intriguing, but they also raise questions about the teams' ability to sustain their success. Both BYU and Utah have the talent and potential, but can they maintain their high rankings throughout the season? The answer to this question will likely determine the outcome of the Big 12 race and the teams' chances of making a deep playoff run.
